A better-than-expected COP28
Given the last few weeks of media flurry around the fact that COP28’s president Sultan al-Jaber is also the United Arab Emirates’ top oil executive, our expectations for progress at COP were rock-bottom.
As COP28 kicked off in November, news about the record-breaking presence of fossil fuel industry execs and lobbyists made its way through the climate sphere. There’s no doubt corruption will be rampant as long as private-sector interests are permitted to maintain such a large presence at the conference.
Despite this corruption and the lack of an accountability mechanism, in one of our recent newsletters, I argued that COPs still need to happen, and great powers should take them seriously. This is partly because COP gives developing nations, especially micro-nations, a relatively equal platform with delegates from the United States, Europe, and China. To paraphrase a former Zambian ambassador to the U.S. speaking to my high school class, “The UN is nothing to the United States and everything to developing countries.” That sentiment stuck with me.
Let’s focus on what was accomplished. A few notable wins from COP28:
Nations committed $700 million in “loss and damage” funds, with the UAE announcing an additional $30 billion climate fund. The loss and damage pledges are a modest win for the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and other countries that will be hit hardest by climate change yet contributed the least to planet-warming emissions. However, $700 million is only a drop in the bucket compared to the multi-billion-dollar estimate for the climate costs borne by vulnerable nations.
A Global Methane Pledge, which aims to slash emissions from methane, a potent greenhouse gas, 30% by 2030 and coincided with the EPA finalizing a regulation on methane emissions from the fossil fuel industry.
A pledge to triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Though there are still significant hurdles to overcome in such a massive buildout, but it’s a goal that is generally considered within reach for the agreement’s signatories.
And finally, for the first time, COP28 delegates referenced a need to “transition away from fossil fuels and phase out fossil fuel subsidies.” This may sound painfully obvious, but it wasn’t a given with so many petrostates sitting at the table.
Because there’s no enforcement mechanism attached to the agreements, the renewable energy commitment seems to be the most promising. There’s a financial incentive to build cheap renewable power in most countries in the world, which will help encourage the displacement of fossil fuels through market forces. This was also President Biden’s strategy in the Inflation Reduction Act, and we’re starting to see that strategy be effective.
The sad news is that limiting warming to 1.5C is now likely beyond reach. Somebody call the goal post-movers. 🙄
– Gabrielle Jorgensen
Climate Changemakers Advocacy Director + Co-Founder